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2011: Another Step On

The Long Road Back

The Recovery Process Continued

From 2000 through 2008, U.S. new vehicle sales averaged 16.4 million units per year. The recession hammered new car sales down to 10.4 million in 2009, the lowest industry total since 1982. Sales increased 11.1% to 11.6 million in 2010, then gained 10.1% to 12.8 million in 2011.

The recession's impact continues to be felt in a painfully slow recovery, with high unemployment and relatively weak consumer confidence levels. But cars keep aging and need to be replaced, so the auto market is performing better than many other segments of the economy.

The automotive landscape has been changing significantly.

Detroit has become a player that can give the Japanese and European brands a run for their money. Chrysler and GM emerged from bankruptcy as stronger entities selling fewer brands and models through a reduced dealer network. Both companies have smarter, tougher-minded management and have been registering dramatically improved financial results. The reasons: (1) A lineup of very competitive new vehicles, and (2) a new production philosophy keeping supply more line with demand, reducing the need for profit-eating higher incentives. Ford avoided bankruptcy, has an attractive vehicle lineup and has been posting steady profits. Combined, Detroit's unit sales gained 14.4%, and its market share increased from 45.4% in 2010 to 47.1% in 2011.

The Japanese would like to forget 2011, a year when the March 11 tsunami-earthquake and floods in Thailand wreaked havoc on production. The two major companies, Toyota and Honda, were hit hardest. Combined, their U.S, sales fell 6.8%, and their market share nosedived from 25.8% in 2010 to 21.9% in 2011. In today's more competitive market, it won't be easy for Toyota to retake its position as King of the Automotive Hill.

In addition to Detroit, the major beneficiaries of Japan's misfortune were Korea's Hyundai-Kia juggernaut and the Volkswagen-Audi group. Boosted by the introduction of head-turning new vehicles of high quality, the Koreans' sales increased a whopping 26.5%, and their market share improved to 8.9% in 2011 from 7.9% the previous year. And fueled by great response to the U.S.-built VW Jetta and a solid Audi performance, the German company's sales mushroomed 23.3% last year, and its market share went to 3.5% from 3.1% in 2010.

2011 also saw a changing of the guard in the luxury category. Lexus had been the sales leader for several years. But two thirds of Lexus vehicles are assembled in Japan, and the earthquake decimated production for several months last year. The brand's U.S. sales fell 13.4% to 198,552. That left BMW and Mercedes locked in a year-end race to the wire for the title of Best Selling Luxury Car. BMW prevailed in a photo finish, with 247,907 sales to Mercedes' 245,192. Many industry observers feel that Lexus has a relatively staid, uninspired product lineup that appeals mostly to people 50 years and older, and that Mercedes and BMW vehicles are more attractive alternatives to younger consumers. You can bet Lexus is working on that issue.

The outlook for 2012 is for continued modest improvement. Industry analysts’ predictions range from 13 million to 14 million sales, with the average about 13.6 million, a 6%+ gain over 2011. Of that total, about 11 million (81%) will be retail sales to folks like us, with the remaining 2.6 million (19%) being fleet sales to daily rental companies, corporations and governments. Although the economic fundamentals — unemployment, housing starts and personal income — are still weak, the need to replace America’s aging vehicle fleet will keep sales moving up. (The average age of vehicles on the road today is 10.7 years, well above the 8-to-9 year average during most of the last decade.)

The balance of this page lists each brand’s 2011 sales performance. (Sales data for individual nameplates within each brand are covered in the Fighting Chance information package, as well as information on actual transaction prices reported by our customers, a current incentive report and step-by-step instructions on how to get the best deal available in your market.)

Domestic Brands

Buick sales gained 14.3% last year (177,633 sold vs. 155,389 in 2010).

Cadillac edged up 3.7% (152,389 sold vs. 146,926 in 2010).

Chevrolet increased 13.6% (1,775,802 sold vs. 1,563,881 sold year-ago).

Chrysler gained 12.1% (221,346 sold vs. 197,446 in 2010).

Dodge was up 18.8% (708,650 vs. 596,627 year-ago).

Ford surged 17.4% (2,057,210 vs. 1,752,511 in 2010).

GMC increased 19.4% (397,973 vs. 333,204 in 2010).

Jeep mushroomed up 44.0% (419,349 vs. 291,138 year-ago).

Lincoln was essentially flat (85,643 vs. 85,828 in 2010).

Asian Brands

Acura fell 7.7% (123,299 vs.133,606 in 2010), a victim of the March 11 earthquake.

Honda fell 6.6% (1,023,986 vs. 1,096,874 year-ago), another earthquake victim.

Hyundai gained 20.0% (645,691 vs. 538,338 in 2010), taking advantage of Honda and Toyota’s misfortune.

Infiniti slipped 4.8% (98,461 sold vs. 103,411 year-ago).

Kia, another Korean beneficiary of Japan’s bad luck, gained a whopping 36.3% (485,492 sold vs. 356,268 in 2010), boosted by some exciting new vehicles.

Lexus, another earthquake victim, fell 13.4% (198,552 sold vs. 229,329 year-ago), losing its “U.S. best-selling luxury car” title to BMW.

Mazda was up 9.1% (250,426 sold vs. 229,566 in 2010).

Mitsubishi gained 41.9% (79,020 sold 55,683 year-ago).

Nissan, essentially unaffected by the earthquake, gained 17.3% (944,073 sales vs. 805,159 in 2010).

Scion, Toyota’s small sub-brand, increased 7.9% (49,271 sold vs. 45,678 year-ago).

Subaru, another Japanese earthquake victim, inched up 1.2% (266,989 sold vs. 263,820 in 2010).

Tiny Suzuki was up 10.9% (just 26,618 sales vs. 23,994 year-ago).

Toyota, a primary earthquake victim, fell 6.2% (1,396,837 sold vs. 1,488,588 in 2010).

European Brands

Audi registered a 15.7% increase (117,561 sold vs. 101,629 in 2010).

BMW gained 12.6% (247,907 sales vs. 220,113 year-ago) to edge out Mercedes as the U.S.’s best-selling luxury brand.

Jaguar, an almost invisible factor in the market, was down 8.0% (12,276 sold vs. 13,340 in 2010).

Land Rover gained 19.6% (38,099 sales vs. 31,864 year-ago).

Mercedes-Benz sales increased 9.0% (245,192 vs. 224,944 in 2010), finishing the year a close second to BMW.

MINI was up 26.0% (57,511 sold vs. 45,644 year-ago).

Porsche sales increased 14.6% (29,023 sold vs. 25,320 in 2010).

Volkswagen surged 26.3% (324,402 sold vs. 256,830 in 2010), spurred by the great response to the all-new American-made Jetta.

And Volvo increased 24.6% (67,240 sold vs. 53,948 in 2010).

These are some of the insights we share with our customers in the Fighting Chance information package.

Ask yourself these two questions:

Isn't it obvious that knowing this kind of information can change the way you feel about a given nameplate and enhance your leverage in negotiating the price of a new vehicle?

If the answer was "yes," then why has no other new-car information service told you about this stuff? Not Consumer Reports, not Edmund's, not AAA, not Kelley Blue Book, not truecar.com, not USAA . . . . . . not anyone, on the Internet or anywhere else. This is public information that's published in many places. In essence, these other guys are clueless about what’s happening in the retail automobile market today. Or more likely, they don't want to jeopardize the advertising revenue they get from automakers and car dealers by giving you information that can strengthen your negotiating posture. By contrast, we're providing insight, not just data. Information that can change the way you feel about the power you have in the negotiation process.

JAMES BRAGG

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